EXCLUSIVE

The ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran has placed Gulf states in an increasingly complex and uncomfortable position. Long reliant on Washington for security, yet geographically and economically exposed to Iran, these countries now find themselves navigating a delicate balance between alliance and self-preservation.

Reluctant Stakeholders in a Growing Conflict
From the outset, Gulf countries sought to avoid direct involvement in the confrontation. However, Iran’s retaliatory strategy—targeting energy infrastructure and regional assets—has effectively drawn them into the crisis.
Recent attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Gulf highlight how quickly the conflict can spill beyond its initial scope, turning neighboring states into frontline stakeholders. 
As a result, Gulf governments are increasingly forced to engage, whether through defensive measures, diplomatic pressure, or indirect alignment with U.S. objectives.

Dependence on the United States—With Reservations
For decades, Gulf monarchies have depended on the United States as their primary security guarantor. The current conflict reinforces this dependence, particularly as Iran demonstrates its capacity to strike across the region.
At the same time, there is growing unease about Washington’s approach. The escalation of military action—especially under President Trump—has raised concerns about unpredictability and the long-term consequences of the war.
This creates a strategic dilemma: Gulf states rely on U.S. protection but are also exposed to the risks generated by U.S. policy decisions.

Iran’s Strategy: Expanding the Battlefield
Iran’s response has been designed not only to counter U.S. and Israeli strikes but also to increase pressure on regional actors. By targeting Gulf infrastructure and shipping routes, Tehran aims to raise the costs of the war for its adversaries and their partners.
This approach has had a dual effect:
•    It demonstrates Iran’s regional reach 
•    It forces Gulf states to reconsider their positions 
Some analysts argue that these actions may ultimately push Gulf countries closer to the United States, even if reluctantly. 

Economic Vulnerability and Energy Risks
The Gulf region sits at the heart of global energy markets, making it particularly sensitive to instability. Disruptions to oil and gas production or shipping routes—especially through the Strait of Hormuz—have immediate global consequences.
The war has already introduced significant uncertainty, affecting investment, trade, and long-term economic planning in Gulf economies. 
For these states, the stakes are not only strategic but deeply economic.

Between Escalation and Diplomacy
Despite rising tensions, many Gulf countries continue to favor diplomatic solutions. Their priority is to prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-scale regional war that could destabilize the entire Middle East.
At the same time, their ability to remain neutral is diminishing as the conflict intensifies and external pressures mount.

Conclusion: A Fragile Balancing Act
The Iran war has exposed the fragile position of Gulf states within the regional order. Caught between a powerful ally and a proximate adversary, they must carefully navigate a path that protects their security without triggering further escalation.
Ultimately, their choices will play a critical role in shaping not only the outcome of the conflict but also the future geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

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